A recent IMS research report states that after declining for two consecutive quarters, PV module shipments are set to recover strongly in the second half of 2011. The rationality is that these rapidly falling PV module prices will be a key factor in re-establishing demand in the second half of the year.
Weak demand in key markets in early 2011 - due to reductions in, and confusion over incentive levels - has led PV module prices to fall quickly. Similar to how the market responded during the period of weak demand in 2009, price declines have further impacted demand by causing some customers to postpone projects, with the aim of securing modules at a lower price at a later date. However, developments in the first half of 2011 have placed the market in a perfect position for a strong second half recovery - the most significant development being that low installations in Germany indicate that a mid-year feed-in-tariff (FiT) reduction is now unlikely.
IMS Research forecasts that PV module shipments will grow sequentially by an average of 30% in the third and fourth quarter, stimulated by strong demand from Germany and other fast-growing markets. Full year PV module shipments are forecast to reach over 23 GW. Strong growth of PV module shipments will stabilize prices in the second half of the year, and will also help to deplete the record levels of channel inventory that has built up throughout the supply chain during the first half of 2011.
But what you do think? Does PV have a chance to grow 30% by year's end?
-Kathie Zipp is associate editor of Solarpowerengineering.com